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Retirement

Retirement Withdrawal Calculator

See how long a retirement portfolio lasts with inflation-adjusted withdrawals and a steady return.

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See how long the money lasts

Your projection

Lasts about 35 years

Initial withdrawal rate

4.4%

Balance after 30 years

$330,748

Withdrawal in year 30

$81,856

A steady return is the kindest possible assumption. Real portfolios move unevenly, and a bad market in the first years of withdrawals does more damage than the same loss later. Test a lower return before trusting the result.

How long will the money last?

The withdrawal rate, the first year’s withdrawal as a share of the portfolio, is the single biggest factor in how long savings last.

How the calculation works

Each year: balance = balance × (1 + return) − withdrawal, then the withdrawal rises by inflation.

A $900,000 portfolio with a $40,000 first-year withdrawal is a 4.4% withdrawal rate. At a 5% return and 2.5% inflation, about $330,700 is left after 30 years and the money lasts about 35 years. By year 30 the withdrawal has grown to about $81,856.

The limit of a steady return

Real returns vary, and losses early in retirement do more damage than the same losses later. This is sequence-of-returns risk. Test a lower return, and count Social Security and pensions, which reduce how much the portfolio has to supply.

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Frequently asked questions

What is the 4% rule?
A guideline from research on historical returns suggesting a 4% first-year withdrawal, raised with inflation, lasted 30 years in most past periods. It is not a guarantee.
How do taxes affect withdrawals?
Withdrawals from traditional accounts are taxed as income. Plan withdrawals to include the tax.
What are required minimum distributions?
Minimum withdrawals from most traditional retirement accounts that start at age 73 for many people. The IRS publishes the rules and tables.

Go deeper

Suggested reading

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The 4% Rule, Examined

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Invest or Pay Off Debt First?

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