
Roth or Traditional: The Decision Rule
It is one comparison: your marginal rate now against your expected rate in retirement. Everything else is a tiebreak, and at equal rates the two are identical to the dollar.
Start investing without the jargon: what to buy, what it quietly costs you, and what to ignore.
33 posts

It is one comparison: your marginal rate now against your expected rate in retirement. Everything else is a tiebreak, and at equal rates the two are identical to the dollar.

A 50% match is a 50% return before the money is invested in anything. On a $70,000 salary, not contributing enough to capture it leaves $2,100 a year on the table, which is $132,823 over a career.

Investing all of it at once wins whenever the market rises, which is most of the time. That is a fact about averages rather than about you, and here is when averaging in is the right answer anyway.

They cost more than building it yourself, and they are still the right answer for most people. On $500 a month over thirty years the difference is $55,068, and here is who should pay it.

For most people holding the same index, no. On $100,000 over five years in a taxable account the tax difference is $312.46, which is about $62 a year. Here are the three cases where it genuinely does matter.

There is a rate above which paying the debt wins and below which investing does, and it sits exactly at the return you expect. Three households, $500 a month, ten years, and three different answers.

0.85% sounds like nothing, and for the first year it is: about $19. Over thirty years of $400 a month it is $70,624, which is more than fourteen years of the contributions themselves.

Total market, international, bonds. What each one is doing, what the ratio changes on $50,000 in a bad year, and why a fourth fund usually adds cost rather than diversification.

An index fund is a rule, not a manager. What the rule costs, what it buys, and why 0.85% instead of 0.04% takes $70,624 off a thirty-year balance.
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